Global e-commerce sales are expected to reach US$6.8 trillion by 2028
E-commerce is set to explode over the next five years, with Forrester predicting that global online retail sales will total US$6.8 trillion by 2028.
The US research firm published a report earlier this week forecasting that e-commerce sales in a territory that includes more than 40 surveyed countries will grow by 8.9% this year, up from US$4.4 trillion in 2023. Despite this blue-sky outlook, 76% of purchases (totaling US$21.9 trillion) are still expected to occur offline at brick-and-mortar stores, meaning that retailers will need to continue investing in both channels.
In the report, Forrester’s principal forecast analyst Jitender Miglani says a key driver contributing to the projection for such astronomical e-commerce growth is the rapid adoption of smartphones and mobile commerce in regions including LatAm, APAC and Eastern Europe. He adds that these markets are catching up in online retail maturity compared to more established markets such as the US, the UK and South Korea, where internet penetration and digital literacy are already heavily embedded in the culture.
Online retail sales in the US are expected to hit US$1.6 trillion by 2028
Breaking the forecast down by region, online retail sales in the US are expected to hit US$1.6 trillion by 2028, at which time they will account for 28% of the country’s purchasing power. Northern neighbor Canada is lagging behind at US$83 billion, due to its lower population density and slower adoption rate for mobile commerce.
China and South Korea are leading in terms of e-commerce penetration
But APAC will be the market to watch, with Forrester predicting a US$1-trillion annual online sales increase to play out there (from US$2.2 trillion in 2023 to US$3.2 trillion by 2028). China and South Korea are leading the region in terms of e-commerce penetration, with more than 40% of their populations expected to purchase goods online over the next five years.
Miglani has also noted some emerging trends in the e-commerce space, including the growth of social commerce platforms (Kijiji, Mercari), livestream selling (Amazon Live, buywith) and companies developing their own direct-to-consumer channels.